The Next Ice Age

I have mentioned before that this was a theory in the 1970s, before "global warming" became dominant.  The point that is different is that both "problems" required the same solution: that you and I give up living in the 20th century and live more like our ancient ancestors.  You know the ones who lived maybe 30 years, and whose lives were plagued by famine, disease, and constant warfare.  But, there has been group of people who have been warning that the next ice age is just around the corner. We are overdue.  

In a post over at The American Thinker  yesterday Fred S. Singer talks about The Next Ice Age. He is right to be concerned. All of the history of mankind, by which I mean the written history of civilization has taken place during the inter-glacial period known as the Holocene.

Natural warming of the Earth reached a peak 65 million years ago. The climate has been generally cooling ever since. Antarctic ice sheets started growing 25 million years ago. In the last 2.5 million years, the Earth entered the period of Ice Ages [the geological name is The Pleistocene] and has been experiencing periodic glaciations where much of the land was covered by miles-thick ice sheets. There have been about 17 glaciations, each lasting approx. 100,000 years, separated by short inter-glacials lasting about 10,000 years.

The last glaciation period, which ended 12,000 years ago had ice sheets extending to the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Of course, it was somewhat further North elsewhere. The point is that much of the what we think of as the "bread basket" of the U. S. would be tundra.  The Gulf of Mexico would resemble the North Sea, with parts no doubt requiring ice breakers to reach New Orleans.

But Singer says not to worry, not that worrying would stop the next ice age from coming:

It is currently believed that a glaciation gets underway when a northern snow field [at latitude of about 65 degree N] survives during the summer and then gradually grows into an ice sheet.

The survived snow field acts as a “trigger” for commencing a glaciation. Its growth into an icesheet is conditioned by the “feedback” as it reflects solar radiation and thus resists being melted by solar energy in the following summers.

It is at this point where we can beneficially interfere. The effort involves two simple steps:

Step 1. Locate any snow field that survives the summer, which can be done most readily by reviewing available satellite data.

Step 2. Spread soot onto the snow field to reduce its albedo [reflectivity] and let the sun melt it during the following summer.

Note that this proposal has low cost and little environmental risk – unlike schemes of geo-engineering to “fight” global warming.

An interesting theory. I doubt if anyone has done any experiments to determine just how much soot would be required. Presumably if would be spread by airplanes. And of course, the environmentalists will claim harm to certain vulnerable populations, who are never identified, of course. Also, presumably these snow sheets are in areas currently of tundra, the sort of areas that few people live in anyhow.

But even if Singer's plan works to keep snow from building up into miles thick ice sheets, it will still be a cooler environment. But don't worry, you will have time to buy your winter togs. The movie The Day After Tomorrow was yet more hysteria from the eternally outraged. It won't happen with that suddenness.  In the meantime, perhaps farmers may begin building green houses to give plants like sweet potatoes a head start.

After point out that there is nothing we can do to avoid this dire fate, Singer offers a hopeful note:

The present population explosion started with the growth of agriculture about 8,000 years ago. Harvest of crops continues to sustain such expansion, but may become impossible during a glaciation.

We don’t know if the human population will shrink to the “carrying capacity” of the Earth. The Neanderthalers were hunters; when they ran out of animals, they starved. But with likely supplies of unlimited energy and some human ingenuity, we may surmount this limit.

And who knows, maybe the Sahara will green up again and become the next bread basket of the world. Wouldn't that be a switch.