Our Liberties Are Being Stolen From Us, And No One Is Upset About It

James Swafford has an interesting take on the current crisis.  Swafford's ideas run counter to current thinking, but if there is anything to them, they would have people back to work sooner.  His piece, at the American Thinker today is entitled How Can We Obtain Herd Immunity? He makes the point that rather than keeping everyone away from everyone else, which extends the time the virus can work its way through society, perhaps letting those under, say 60 and who are healthy to interact with each other.

Herd immunity is when enough members of a population (a herd, so to speak), are immune from a disease, so that a person with the disease infects fewer than one other person. Once there is herd immunity, outbreaks of the disease taper off rather than grow exponentially.

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Until a vaccine is developed, the only way to obtain herd immunity from the coronavirus is for enough people to have gotten the Wuhan virus and to have recovered from it. One question that immediately arises is how many people need to get it and recover for herd immunity to take hold. The answer depends on the rate that of transmission of the disease or the R0. I have seen estimates of the transmission rate ranging from 1.4 to 3.5. At a transmission rate of 1.4, herd immunity requires a little less than 30% of the population to be immune. If the transmission rate is 2.0, then herd immunity requires 50% of the population to be immune. A transmission rate of 3.5 requires a little over 71% of the population to be immune.

Keeping in mind there is no vaccine today and there is not likely to be one for months, the only way to get herd immunity is for something like 30% to 50% or higher of the population to get the Wuhan virus and recover.

An implication of this is that while social distancing, hand washing and avoiding touching one’s face are excellent policies to avoid getting the Wuhan virus yourself, they delay herd immunity for the population as a whole. This creates a free rider situation that is the opposite of vaccination. When vaccination is available and you don’t get one, you are free riding off of the rest of the population who did get vaccinated or contributed to herd immunity by getting the disease and recovering. With no vaccination available, if you avoid getting and recovering from the disease, you are not contributing to herd immunity and free riding on those who do contribute to it by getting the Wuhan virus and recovering.

Fox News reported this morning that of those tested, approximately 1 million so far, 7,000 had the virus and had recovered.  This is twice the number of people who have died and who had the Kung Flu.  (Note that not all of those who had the Wuhan Flu and died, died of the Flu.  Many of them had other issues, of which the flu was an exacerbating illness.)

Besides the obvious point that the virus seems to be deliberately stretched out, there is the point that our Constitutional liberties are under attack in the name of fighting a disease that, all data shows to be deadly, but no more deadly than other pandemics that have swept the world. We didn;t lose our rights to assemble, to vote in some cases, to bear arms, to travel freely.  No one said we could not attend church services.  All these things are unprecedented.  What is more shocking is that everyone seems to be acceding to these tyrannical edicts, as though politicians had a right to make them.  They do not.

Shelter at home if you if you feel you must.  But if you get out and talk with anyone, I suspect you will find that people who are healthy are none the less suffering.  I don't mean to minimize this disease, but I also don't want to exaggerate it either